The Creativity Suite. Episode 158: The Case for Worst-Case Strategy.

Interview with Danny Donkers, Country Lead – Greece and Cyprus at Amgen.

In a “normal” world, it makes sense to make worst-case scenarios, best-case scenarios, and base scenarios, and to go with the base scenario.

However, in an environment that is constantly changing unexpectedly and where planning seems (and often is) impossible, it can actually make the most sense to prepare for the worst-case scenario.

Because in a chaotic world, people might be disheartened and lose confidence when nothing goes as planned and things always change.

By planning for the worst case scenario your people will then get positively surprised and energized when that bad scenario doesn’t always happen. Let’s call that “worst-case-strategy”.

It is similar to how a football team meeting a much better team might plan a very defensive strategy, but will be ready to counterattack if the opportunity presents itself. 

Having a worst-case strategy is not about being “defensive” or “negative” – it’s about using the positive energy that comes when people who have been living in a chaotic world where you seem to not be able to trust anyone or anything suddenly feel that they get a “win”.

Worst-case strategy is not about having a “the glass is empty” mindset. It’s a “the glass will probably be empty, but if it is not, I will be ready to drink it-mindset.”

It’s a strategy to stay sane in a crazy world and to have enough creative juice left when, suddenly and unexpectedly, an opportunity actually reveals itself.

This text was inspired by a conversation with Danny Donkers, Country Lead – Greece and Cyprus at Amgen. Danny has managed business in situations and markets where Worst-case-strategy helped him navigate the business landscape successfully.